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In an interview with the Financial Times, CBO director Phillip Swagel said US government debt — which the Treasury Department puts at nearly $35 trillion — is on an “unprecedented” trajectory. UK government bonds, or gilts, and the pound sold off sharply, partly in response to plans by Truss to issue more debt in order to pay for tax cuts. Mortgage rates and other borrowing costs soared as investors demanded much higher premiums for owning UK debt. He has promised to extend his 2017 tax cuts and has also spoken about reducing the corporate tax rate from the current 21% to 15%. “I will make the Trump tax cuts the largest tax cut in history,” he said last month at the Black Conservative Federation’s Honors Gala in South Carolina.
Persons: Phillip Swagel, Liz, , Truss, ” Swagel, Dave Ramsden, Donald Trump’s, Joe Biden, Fitch, , Trump Organizations: London CNN, Congressional, Financial Times, Treasury Department, CNN, Bank of England, Democrats, Trump, Black Conservative, US Treasury, Federal, CBO Locations: United States, United Kingdom, South Carolina
London CNN —World leaders are flocking to Davos this week to pontificate on the planet’s most pressing problems. Even in the absence of a new crisis, soaring debt servicing costs will constrain efforts to tackle climate change and care for aging populations. Mortgage rates and other borrowing costs soared as investors demanded much higher premiums for owning UK debt. Mounting debt and political brinksmanship have already taken their toll on America’s credit rating, which typically affects borrowing costs for the government, businesses and households. And that would increase the government’s borrowing costs.
Persons: worryingly, Michael Saunders, , Saunders, that’s, Liz Truss, Dave Ramsden, Fitch, Moody’s, Raghuram Rajan, “ It’s, ” Rajan, Anna Cooban Organizations: London CNN —, Bank, CNN, Oxford Economics, Bank of England, AAA, States ’, Reserve Bank of India, Labour Party, Treasury Department, Federal, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Locations: Davos, Kingdom, Argentina, States, United States, Switzerland
Bank of England drags Bagehot into the shadows
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
That is no longer tenable, in part because of reforms to bank regulation that shifted activity from traditional lenders to financial market players. These days, the institutions in need of urgent liquidity are just as likely to be pension funds, insurers or hedge funds. The British central bank’s initial ideas make sense, but only solve part of the problem. The central bank can short-circuit the panic by opening the credit taps. Central banks are only just starting to grapple with what it means to be a lender of last resort in that context.
Persons: Walter Bagehot’s, Andrew Hauser, BoE, WALTER, Gurney, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Bank of England, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Pensions, . Treasury, Citadel, Millennium Management, City of, U.S . Federal, Gurney & Company, Victorian, Thomson Locations: British, City, City of London, Basel, Overend, Lombard
Investors cautioned that tax breaks would not be sufficient to raise business investment while UK interest rates stayed high. But Wednesday, equity markets focused on Hunt's business boosts, such as a move to make full expensing on investment permanent. UK stock markets have underperformed their European and U.S. peers in 2023. The FTSE 100 index 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio is around 10.7, about half that of U.S. stocks, with Hunt's budget unlikely to move the dial too far. Reuters GraphicsSTERLING SOGGYThe pound struggled to gain any traction on the back of Hunt's budget.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Kwasi Kwarteng, Leigh Himsworth, Simon Harvey, Philip Shaw, Thomas McGarrity, Fuller, Smith, Turner, Oli Creasey, It's, BoE, GILTS, Craig Erlam, Goldman Sachs, Naomi Rovnick, Samuel Indyk, Lucy Raitano, Amanda Cooper, Harry Robertson, Angus MacSwan Organizations: REUTERS, Wednesday, Traders, Investors, Fidelity International, Reuters Graphics, Bank of England, BT, Investec, RBC Wealth Management, Reuters, BREWERS, Debt Management, Reuters Graphics STERLING, Thomson Locations: U.S, Cheviot, gilts, London
Take Five: Black Friday is (almost) here
  + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
REUTERS/Kamil Krzaczynski/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 17 (Reuters) - U.S. retailers are gearing up for Black Friday, marking the start of the shopping season that follows the Thanksgiving holiday, while business activity data should gauge the temperature elsewhere. 1/ BARGAIN HUNTINGThe crucial holiday shopping season kicks off with Black Friday on Nov. 24 at a time when investors are questioning whether the consumer-driven U.S. economy can remain resilient. This year's Black Friday comes as Americans grapple with soaring interest rates and inflation that, while easing, remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Already, data for October showed U.S. retail sales fell, pointing to slowing demand, although the decline was less than expected. As long as that's not the case, pressure is on the Kishida cabinet since a weak yen is unpopular politically.
Persons: Kamil Krzaczynski, Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Karin Strohecker, There's, PIMCO, Rishi Sunak, David Cameron, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, bode, Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Pragmatist Massa, Prinz Magtulis, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Pasit, Mark Potter Organizations: Walmart, REUTERS, Black, Nvidia, Insider Intelligence, European Commission, PMI, Fed, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, DOWNING STREET, Labour, gilts, Natwest, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Peronist, Thomson Locations: Chicago , Illinois, U.S, Argentina, Lewis, New York, Tokyo, London, Britain, Japan, Egypt, Taiwan, South Africa, India
BoE's Ramsden: UK interest rates to stay high for extended time
  + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - The Bank of England is likely to need to keep interest rates high for an extended period, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said on Thursday, sticking close to the central bank's existing language on the topic. Ramsden voted with the majority on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) this month to keep interest rates on hold at a 15-year high of 5.25%. "Monetary policy is likely to need to be restrictive for an extended period of time," Ramsden said in prepared remarks for the European Systemic Risk Board's annual conference. "The MPC have communicated that monetary policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term," he added. The BoE currently holds 748 billion pounds ($931 billion) of gilts, down from a peak of 875 billion pounds in December 2021, and committed to reduce its stockpile by 100 billion pounds between October 2023 and September 2024.
Persons: Dave Ramsden, Ramsden, BoE, David Milliken, Sachin Ravikumar, Kylie MacLellan Organizations: Bank of England, Monetary, Financial, Thomson
The London Stock Exchange Group offices are seen in the City of London, Britain, December 29, 2017. Following the data, yields on short-term UK Gilts, reflecting near-term interest rate expectations, slid, aiding a 7.0% surge in rate sensitive real estate investment trusts (.FTNMX351020). "It may well be due to potential sentiment coming ahead of tomorrow's UK CPI data, with the hope that it comes in lower as well," said Christopher Peters, trading floor manager at Accendo Markets. UK October CPI data, due on Wednesday, could throw further light on the outlook for domestic monetary policy. Reporting by Khushi Singh and Johan M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Alex RichardsonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Toby Melville, Christopher Peters, Jefferies, Tim Clark, Khushi Singh, Johan M Cherian, Sherry Jacob, Phillips, Alex Richardson Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Vodafone, Federal, tomorrow's, Accendo Markets, Investors, Entain, Royce, Emirates, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, Teck, U.S, Italy, Bengaluru
People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. The 10-year yield on U.K. government bonds, known as gilts, was 13 basis points lower at 4.366% at 3:20 p.m. in London following the Bank of England announcement at midday. The 2-year yield, a reflection of interest rate expectations, was down 8 basis points at 4.711%. Elsewhere in Europe, bond yields have also been sliding. German 10-year bond yields fell following the Fed decision and were around 5 basis points lower on Thursday, while Italy's 10-year yield was down 9 basis points.
Persons: Henry Nicholls, , Philip Lane, Jerome Powell's, Steve Englander Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Research, Standard Chartered, Treasury Locations: City, London, Britain, Europe, North America, U.S
And some banks think the Bank of England may be the latest to paper over the QT cracks as soon as this week. Already, there's been some awkward shuffling of feet around a process that was meant to be just balance sheet plumbing. The Federal Reserve may be further away from dealing with the QT issue head on. Deutsche Bank's UK strategists agree and think "the bar for a shift in QT policy is lower heading into yearend." Deutsche argues the BoE could either skew gilt sales shorter or agree to sell evenly based on current market valuations.
Persons: there's, BOE, BoE, BofA, Deutsche, Mike Dolan, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Bank of England, European Central Bank, Federal, . Treasury, Bank, Treasury, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank's, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, yearend
Market volatility looks here to stay: Yields are still rising, a war is raging, and it's uncertain whether interest rates will stay higher for longer. Go for bonds Though volatility in the bond market has led to losses, some fund managers are saying that it's time to get back into this asset class, given that yields are high. Money market funds typically include short-term Treasurys. Bond yields move inversely to prices — that means a peak in interest rates may signal that bond prices have bottomed. When interest rates rise, bond prices typically fall as existing bonds with lower yields become less attractive.
Persons: Investors, David Katz, Katz, Bryn Jones, there's, Jones, Hide, Paul Meeks, Meeks, Steven Glass, Glass, Marsh McLennan, he's, they're, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Treasury, Bank of America, Matrix Asset, CNBC Pro, gilts, U.S . Federal, Treasury Bond ETF, Pella Funds, Group, ASM, Taiwan's Locations: Israel, United States, China, U.S, Pella, Germany, Netherlands
But with 10-year Treasury yields surging to 5% - a 16-year high , many investors might now be tempted to lock in those high yields and buy into bonds. "You may not see such high yields as these in the next year or two," he told CNBC's " Squawk Box Asia " on Thursday. Bond prices and bond yields move in opposite directions. It's unfavorable on U.S. intermediate-term fixed income, as well as high yield taxable fixed income. Types of fixed income that it's overweight on include short-term U.S. Treasurys, U.S. inflation-linked bonds, U.K. gilts and emerging market bonds.
Persons: Wells, Paul Christopher, CNBC's, Christopher, Wells Fargo, Thomas Poullaouec, Rowe Price, Wells Fargo's Scott Wren, Bryn Jones, Rathbones, there's, Jones, He's, BlackRock Organizations: Investment, U.S, gilts, BlackRock Investment, U.S . Federal Reserve, Treasurys Locations: Asia, Pacific
MUMBAI (Reuters) - India’s state-owned banks will slow government bond purchases in the weeks ahead as banking system liquidity tightens, treasury officials from nine state lenders said. REUTERS/Hemanshi KamaniBond yields have spiked since Oct. 6, when the central bank said it will keep monetary policy restrictive and sell bonds to manage banking system liquidity. These lenders have bought 253 billion rupees ($3 billion) of government debt since Sept. 22, including 100 billion rupees on Oct. 6. Banking system liquidity - the quantum of funds in the interbank market - has largely been in deficit from the middle of September. Bond traders expect the banking system’s cash position to stay in deficit because of tax payments and likely bond sales by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
Persons: , ” Vijay Sharma, PNB Gilts, Bond Organizations: REUTERS, Banking, Reserve Bank of India, Locations: MUMBAI, , India
MUMBAI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - India's state-owned banks will slow government bond purchases in the weeks ahead as banking system liquidity tightens, treasury officials from nine state lenders said. Bond yields have spiked since Oct. 6, when the central bank said it will keep monetary policy restrictive and sell bonds to manage banking system liquidity. These lenders have bought 253 billion rupees ($3 billion) of government debt since Sept. 22, including 100 billion rupees on Oct. 6. Reuters GraphicsBanking system liquidity - the quantum of funds in the interbank market - has largely been in deficit from the middle of September. Bond purchases would be incremental and linked to rise in yields, say at every 3-4 basis points, the treasury head at the state-run bank said.
Persons: Vijay Sharma, PNB Gilts, Dharamraj Dhutia, Swati Bhat, Mrigank Organizations: Reuters Graphics Banking, Reserve Bank of India, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, India
“Our plan will drive far more growth and opportunity here in the north than a faster train to London ever would,” he said Wednesday. Some of the alternatives Sunak highlighted were predicated on the delivery of HS2, said Henrietta Bailey, CEO of Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce. “This is the biggest and most damaging U-turn in the history of UK infrastructure,” the High Speed Rail Group, which represents companies such as Siemens, Hitachi and Bombardier, said in a statement. “The decision … sends a hugely disappointing message about our commitment to completing major infrastructure projects in the UK,” said Stephen Phipson, chief executive of Make UK, which represents manufacturing firms. The country must hope that his latest policy reversal doesn’t deter investors and further undermine a struggling UK economy, perpetuating a doom-loop of weak growth and underinvestment.
Persons: Rishi Sunak, Sunak, , Henrietta Bailey, Stephen Phipson, Mark Allen, ” Sunak, , Liz Truss, he’s, Sunak blinked, James Mason, ” — Hanna Ziady Organizations: London CNN —, Leeds, Birmingham Chambers of Commerce, HS2 —, Conservative, Speed Rail Group, Siemens, Hitachi, Bombardier, Make, Investors, Treasury, Business Locations: England, United Kingdom, London, Germany, France, Italy, China, Japan, Edinburgh, Birmingham, Manchester, Britain, West, North Yorkshire
When official interest rates rise, so do investors’ expectations for returns on bonds, known as yields. In the United Kingdom, the yield on 30-year bonds also reached 5% this week, the highest level in more than two decades. Yields on Italy’s 10-year bonds hit 5% on Wednesday, the highest level since 2012, when that crisis was in full swing. Mortgage rates riseThe yields on local government bonds are usually used by banks to price mortgages. High official interest rates in America and Europe have also raised the cost of borrowing for businesses.
Persons: Saul Loeb, Liz Truss, , Matt Cardy, Freddie Mac, Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley, Stocks, ” Russ Mould, AJ Bell, we’ve, , , That’s, ” Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves Lansdown Organizations: London CNN, US Treasury Department, Getty, UK, CNN, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, BlackRock, Hargreaves Locations: Washington ,, United Kingdom, Bath, England, United States, Europe, America
As interest rates potentially peak, investment advisors say there are now opportunities for hefty gains through certain government bonds. This was during the Covid-19 pandemic when the Bank of England had just cut rates to 0.1%. "You potentially could make a good capital appreciation when interest rates start to fall," Amis added. Amis expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in August 2024. Meanwhile, interest rate traders in the U.S. expect the Federal Reserve to implement its first rate cut in July 2024.
Persons: Matthew Amis, Amis, Abrdn, Iain Stealey, Stealey Organizations: Bank of England, U.S, Treasury, Bank of, JPMorgan Asset Management, Federal Reserve Locations: U.K, U.S
Benefiting from the highest interest rates since 2008, pension funds are better funded to meet future payouts than they have been in years. Because insurers hold a lot less government debt than pension funds, favouring higher-return assets such as corporate debt, they are expected to sell some of the gilts they receive. It is selling 240 billion pounds of debt this year, a record, save for 2020-21. Helped by the pension fund demand of past years, Britain's average debt life is around 15 years, more than double the U.S. and Germany's. Britain has already started skewing its funding towards shorter debt this year, citing high borrowing needs, a move investors reckon also reflects declining pension fund appetite.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, BoE, gilts, Chris Jeffery, Lane Clark, Peacock, Barry Kenneth, Van Lanschot, Arif Saad, Craig, Owen Davies, LGIM's Jeffery, Yoruk, Carolyn Cohn, Dhara Ranasinghe, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of England, Legal, General Investment Management, Fund, Investment, Royal London Asset Management, Investors, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: gilts, Germany's, Britain, Amsterdam, London
People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. Henry Nicholls | ReutersLONDON — The Bank of England's rapid pace of bond sales is creating a "selling gold at the bottom" moment for investors, according to Christopher Mahon, head of dynamic real return at Columbia Threadneedle. Now, despite the fact that the value of gilts has fallen dramatically since then, the central bank is unwinding those holdings, and fast. In late July, the central bank estimated that it would require the Treasury to indemnify £150 billion ($189 billion) of losses on its asset purchase facility (APF). The Bank of England, for its part, disputes that the asset sales are affecting markets in any substantive way.
Persons: Henry Nicholls, Christopher Mahon, Mahon, BOE, it's, Dave Ramsden, Ramsden Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters LONDON, Columbia, U.K . Treasury, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank, U.K, . Bank of England, CNBC, Monetary, BNP Locations: City, London, Britain
In late July, the central bank estimated that it would require the U.K. Treasury to backstop £150 billion ($189 billion) of losses on its asset purchase facility (APF). It saw the BOE accrue £895 billion worth of bond holdings while interest rates were historically low. However, the pace at which the central bank has had to tighten monetary policy in a bid to tame inflation means the costs have risen more sharply than anticipated. watch now"First, interest rates have risen far above levels assumed in the fiscal watchdog's spring forecasts. "On the other hand, though, while QE gilts are not sold, the BoE pays Bank Rate on the ~£900bn reserves it created to buy them.
Persons: Dan Kitwood, BOE, Sanjay Raja, Raja, Imogen Bachra, BoE, Bachra, QE Organizations: Bank of England, Getty, Deutsche Bank ., Treasury, AFP, Deutsche Bank, Bank, NatWest, Locations:
Stock futures wavered as investors awaited another reading on inflation. Stocks got a small bump yesterday after the consumer-price index showed modest underlying price pressures . Stock futures oscillated. Gilts led a selloff in European government bonds, the FTSE 100 slid and the pound rallied, after data showed the U.K. economy grew last quarter. The Shanghai Composite Index lost 2% after data showed a steep drop in new loans issued by Chinese banks, signaling that credit demand remains weak.
Persons: Stocks, Gilts Organizations: Stock, Nasdaq, Dow, Bank of England, UBS, Credit Suisse, Overseas Locations: U.S, Swiss, Europe, Shanghai
LONDON, July 28 (Reuters) - A reappraisal of the dollar could be the next big "pain trade". Dollar jumps as US 2-year yield premium builds vs G7Net short dollar contracts from CFTCBofA chart on fund managers dollar viewSMILEFor the dollar at least, it starts to look less of a one-way rate bet. For those who favour intra-G7 interest rate differentials for guidance, the picture is not much better for dollar bears. But if "soft landings", disinflation and buoyant markets continue to rule the roost, it may be hard work for the outsize "anti-dollar" bet. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: There's, BoE, What's, it's, Mike Dolan, Alison Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Treasury, Bank of England, gilts, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan
Banks to fuel boom in UK Plc regular dividend payouts
  + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The estimate from financial services company Computershare is 2.7 billion pounds higher than its April forecast and reflects improved profit prospects across the rate-sensitive industry. Computershare's latest quarterly Dividend Monitor showed bank payouts rose 61% on an underlying basis to around 7.8 billion pounds in the second quarter. The sector is set to raise headline payouts by over 3 billion pounds this year. That estimate is 1 billion pounds more than what it forecast three months ago. In the second quarter, UK dividends rose 3.5% on an underlying basis, but fell 9% to 32.8 billion pounds on a headline basis, it said.
Persons: Computershare, Rio, Danilo Masoni, Amanda Cooper, David Evans Organizations: MILAN, HSBC, Bank of England, Rio Tinto, Tobacco, Thomson
LONDON, July 25 (Reuters) - The Bank of England forecast on Tuesday that it would make a net loss of just over 150 billion pounds ($193 billion) over the next 10 years as it unwinds its quantitative easing (QE) gilt purchases, up from 100 billion pounds projected in April. In the short term, the BoE expects the government to pay around 40 billion pounds a year in 2023, 2024 and 2025, roughly 10 billion pounds a year more than its last estimate in April. Markets currently expect BoE rates to peak at 5.75% later this year, up from around 5% at the time of April's report. The BoE projections assume holdings continue to fall at their current target rate of 80 billion pounds a year. That is still more than 50 billion pounds greater than forecast in April.
Persons: Rishi, BoE, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, David Milliken, Paul Sandle, Kylie MacLellan, Andy Bruce Organizations: Bank of England, Conservative Party, Thomson
But management of central bank balance sheets could help - even if central bankers are keen to publicly disassociate the process from monetary policy goals per se. But the U.S. central bank can be more comfortable nearing peak rates with inflation much closer to target than Europe's central banks - where future trade-offs may be more tempting. G3 central bank balance sheetsFed share of Treasury marketReuters GraphicsBACKGROUND NOISE? Ramsden laced his comments with caution about not confusing the run-down of the BoE's "asset purchase facility" with its central policy task. And they reckoned an increase in the volume of QT should theoretically lead to higher term premia in euro bond markets.
Persons: Dave Ramsden, BoE, Ramsden, there's, Mike Dolan, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S
Morning Bid: Britain's CPI the next frontier
  + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A tentative rally in gilts is poised to extend and sterling could probably say goodbye to the strong side of $1.30. Forecasts put Britain's annual CPI falling to 8.2% in June and core holding at 7.1%. New Zealand sounded a warning in the Asia session, with food prices keeping annual headline inflation higher than expected at 6%. Netflix (NFLX.O), Tesla (TSLA.O) and Goldman Sachs (GS.N) report results later in the day. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:Data: British CPI, Euro zone final CPI, U.S. housing startsSpeakers: Bank of England's Dave RamsdenEarnings: Netflix, Tesla, Goldman SachsReporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Tom Westbrook, BoE, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of England's Dave Ramsden, Muralikumar Organizations: Bank of, Traders, U.S, Netflix, Microsoft, CPI, Bank of England's, Tesla, Thomson Locations: U.S, Canada, gilts, New Zealand, Asia
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